CNSX: TRUL
OTC: TCNNF | Warrants : TRUL.WT

Trulieve is the first and leading medical cannabis company in the state of Florida, the third most populous state in the United States. Its vertically-integrated "seed-to-sale" operation has approximately 51% of the Florida market. Trulieve boasts over 501+ SKUs and is constantly adding new, fresh, and exciting items to its product line. Its widespread dispensary network and large delivery fleet provides important, much-needed access to thousands of patients every day throughout the state. Trulieve is committed to growing its dispensary footprint in the state, constantly identifying new locations that will bring Trulieve closer to patients, allowing many more people to have easier access to the medicine they need. The Company has 55 stores in Florida, and 57 nationwide, with more growth ahead. Its first mover advantage in the state provides numerous benefits, including brand recognition and media attention. Strong financial performance, driven by sales to a loyal and dedicated group of patients affectionately called Trulievers, positions the company's commitment to continue its pattern of growth.

Key Metrics


120.8 M

Revenue

60.5 M

Adjusted EBITDA

65

Stores

1.8 M

sq. ft. cult

Why Trulieve Cannabis is our top pick


Why we believe in this company

  • 52% EBITDA margin

  • Best positioned in Florida

  • Strong QoQ growth at a reasonable Price-to-Sales

  • Profitable and low debt

  • Huge Total Addressable Market Cap

  • Tight float & high long-term insider ownership

  • Edibles sales just started

  • Big catalysts coming (decriminalization, SAFE Act, uplisting)

  • Top M&A candidate

  • Flawless execution and shareholder value creation

  • Undervalued versus peers

Potential catalysts

  • Decriminalization or rescheduling of cannabis in USA

  • SAFE Banking Act

  • Legalization of Recreational Cannabis in Florida

  • Federal Legalization

  • Uplisting to Nasdaq or NYSE

  • Expansion in other states

  • Mergers & Acquisitions

  • Partnership with big CPG multinational

  • International expansion when federally permissible

Retail Sales Metrics


Great Retention Rate

Q220 Customer Retention Rate was 76% (Q2 Earnings Call)

Multiple Patient Visits

Active Patients visited 2.8/month with a basket average of $125 per visit (Q2 Earnings Call)

Increased Annual Patient Spending

Annual Patient Spend as of Q419 grew to $3900, an increase of $1100 over Q418 (updated annually)

Sales increase

26 stores open for the full quarter in Q2 2019 and Q2 2020 generated a Same Store Sales increase of 30% (Q2 Earnings Call)

Low returns

No Ask Return policy generates <1% returns (updated annually)

Amazing run rate

Avg $ per sq ft run rate of ~$2300 across 44 stores in 2019 (updated annually)

Large & growing product line

500+ SKUs with multiple concentration ratios and strains

Super-critical ethanol and CO2 extraction and distillation processes to produce concentrates. Infrastructure ready to support BHO extraction methods.

Dispensaries

Trulieve has over 60 dispensaries in Florida, and multiple others in California, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

View dispensaries

Business Shifts and Re-Open FL Changes


Patient Behavior Pre C-19/Early C-19 Addressed 80/20 flip in walk-in business vs pickup and deliveries 80% walk-in, 15% pick up, 5% delivery (March*) became 20% walk-in, 60% pick up, 20% delivery (April*)

Basket Trends Pre C-19/Early C-19 During March-May, basket sizes trended up $121, $125, $127 while visits remained at 2.7

Patient Behavior C-19/Re-Open FL Post Covid wave (May into June*) showed shift back to walk-in business at 40% walk-in, 50% pick up, 10% delivery

Basket Trends Pre C-19/Re-Open FL Baskets in June dropped back to $120 but visits were up to 2.8/month

Strong Growth and Margin Profile

FY2020
Incorporates our expansion into Massachusetts as well as continued growth in Florida, Connecticut, and California. Based on these markets, current regulations, and foreseeable store growth, Trulieve has provided guidance of:
• $465M to $485M in revenue
• Generating $205M to $225M in adjusted EBITDAe

Chart TRUL.CN


trulieve

Trulieve soars after earnings

Kim Rivers, Trulieve CEO, on her company's earnings report. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman and Steve Grasso.

Analysts Price Targets


Forward looking

Projected Growth of Global Cannabis Market (billion U.S. dollars)


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Metrics


Market Cap 4,207,601,920
Price/Sales 7.72x
Average Volume 3M 305,924
52W Low -
52W High -2.3%
Next earnings date -
1W Performance 1.05%
1M Performance 14.27%
3M Performance 30.13%
6M Performance 95.08%
1Y Performance 124.94%
YTD Performance 139.73%
AT Performance 221.8%

Investors love Trulieve Cannabis


Comparison


Investor deck


Executive management team


Kim Rivers
Kim Rivers

Chief Executive Officer

15 years of experience running successful businesses from real estate to finance. Legal background in M&A and securities law. Rivers serves as second vice chair for the National Cannabis Roundtable. She received her Bachelor's degree in Multinational Business and Political Science from Florida State University, and her Juris Doctorate from the University of Florida.

Valda Coryat
Valda Coryat

Chief Marketing Officer

20 years of CPG and agricultural marketing leadership.

Alex D'Amico
Alex D'Amico

Chief Financial Officer

20 years of accounting and finance experience in technology, healthcare entertainment and advertising.

Jason Pernell
Jason Pernell

Chief Information Officer

18 years of business experience. Accomplished medical cannabis business owner in California and Oregon.

Kyle Landrum
Kyle Landrum

Chief Production Officer

10 years of multi-site operations management and successfully led large teams to achieve company goals.

Eric Powers
Eric Powers

General Counsel

25 years of broad legal experience with a background in corporate and tax law, both in-house and private practice.

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No investment advice is given. The authors are long Trulieve (Shares and Warrants). Please read our full disclaimer.